Resolution Capital Real Assets is an Managed Funds investment product that is benchmarked against ASX Index 200 A-REIT Index and sits inside the Property - Australian Listed Property Index. Think of a benchmark as a standard where investment performance can be measured. Typically, market indices like the ASX200 and market-segment stock indexes are used for this purpose. The Resolution Capital Real Assets has Assets Under Management of 14.88 M with a management fee of 0.65%, a performance fee of 0 and a buy/sell spread fee of 0.41%.
The S&P/ASX 300 A-REIT Total Return Index produced a total return of 2.2% for the month ended 31 August 2023, outperforming the Australian equities market (S&P/ASX 300 Total Return Index). Australian listed Infrastructure underperformed property.
The relative strong A-REIT sector performance was largely driven by industrial landlord and developer Goodman Group (GMG).
Consequently, within A-REITs the industrial sector outperformed, specialist and retail sectors trailed slightly whilst the office and diversified sectors underperformed. Broadly, the Portfolio’s infrastructure exposure detracted from relative performance.
August was filled with FY23 earnings results and maiden FY24 earnings guidance. Outperforming A-REITs included industrial REIT Goodman Group. Goodman reported strong operating fundamentals, guided to a near sector-leading 9% FY24 earnings growth and disclosed a large data centre pipeline underpinning future development earnings.
The Portfolio’s underweight position in GMG detracted from relative performance.
Underperforming A-REITs included office and industrial landlord Growthpoint (GOZ) and diversified Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (CLW). Both companies have above sector average financial leverage. Higher debt costs are a key drag as GOZ guided to -15% FY24 earnings growth and CLW -7% for FY24 after -8% in FY23. The Portfolio’s underweight positions in GOZ and CLW contributed to relative performance.
Key A-REIT reporting season themes include:
• Few A-REITs will grow earnings in FY24 owing to higher debt costs overwhelming revenue growth.
• More FY24 earnings guidance misses than beats, generally due to new interest rate hedging crystallising higher FY24 debt costs.
• Office remains challenging. Occupancy was broadly stable though some reported declines. Tenant incentives remain elevated and the tone softened on proposed developments. Several A-REITs are trying to sell assets though buyers remain cautious. Dexus (DXS) sold 1 Margaret St, Sydney for 21% below Jun-22 book value and retained an equity holding given the acquirer could not raise all of the required capital.
• Retail metrics were encouraging. Occupancy is high (>98.5%), leasing spreads improved to flat/positive and retailers are generally in good financial shape heading into a tougher environment. Supply of new centres is low. Sales growth is decelerating into FY24, particularly for discretionary categories, likely impacting occupancy and leasing spreads. Rising property expenses inc luding insurance/utilities/taxes are pressuring net rent growth.
• Industrial conditions remain favourable though there are some signs of demand softening from a high base. Occupancy is high (~99%), supply is delayed due to planning and new deal rents accelerated in 2H23 to >20% above in-place rents. Mirvac (MGR), Stockland (SGP) and GPT continue to prioritise growing industrial exposure, generally via development.
• Residential sentiment is subdued near-term with more optimism into CY24 if interest rates stabilise. Affordability is constraining demand and first home buyers are absent, hit by lower borrowing capacity. Sales are at historically low levels though sequentially improving from the 2022 trough. Enquiry has lifted but conversion is slow. Buyer defaults are above cyclical ave rages. Positively, A-REIT residential developers are winning market share, production constraints are easing and construction cost inflation is moderating. Medium-term support from undersupply and migration remains intact.
• Headwinds for fund managers persist. Transaction volumes are subdued, downward valuation pressure remains and equity inflows have slowed with some funds needing to satisfy redemptions.
• Self-storage FY24 revenue growth is slowing to long-run ~4-5% from elevated levels during the pandemic years. In FY23 occupancy loss was offset by rate growth. For both National Storage REIT (NSR) and Abacus Storage King (ASK) development is a key growth driver with attractive returns.
Auckland Airport (AIA) resumed paying dividends as FY23 passenger volumes recovered to 75% of 2019, aided by international back to 86% in Jun-23 but domestic plateauing at 84% due to airline capacity constraints. AIA guided to higher profitability in FY24, albeit less than expected, due to a continued recovery in passengers and retail income, property developments and higher aeronautical tariffs associated with its monumental $6.6bn 10-yr capex plan which includes a new domestic terminal.
Toll road operator Transurban (TCL) reported an FY23 result which slightly missed expectations due to higher costs and weaker traffic in the fourth quarter, with Sydney and Melbourne still below 2019. Future earnings growth is underpinned by new road development completions and TCL remains interested in acquiring a stake in Eastlink. The new CEO will likely maintain the existing strategic focus on growing a sustainable dividend as traffic stabilises on new road developments, rather than pursuing new capital intensive pro jects.
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