Magellan High Conviction is an Managed Funds investment product that is benchmarked against Developed -World Index and sits inside the Foreign Equity - Large Specialised Index. Think of a benchmark as a standard where investment performance can be measured. Typically, market indices like the ASX200 and market-segment stock indexes are used for this purpose. The Magellan High Conviction has Assets Under Management of 707.59 M with a management fee of 1.5%, a performance fee of 10.00% and a buy/sell spread fee of 0.14%.
The recent investment performance of the investment product shows that the Magellan High Conviction has returned 0.38% in the last month. The previous three years have returned 4.68% annualised and 12.34% each year since inception, which is when the Magellan High Conviction first started.
There are many ways that the risk of an investment product can be measured, and each measurement provides a different insight into the risk present. They can be used on their own or together to perform a risk assessment before investing, but when comparing investments, it is common to compare like for like risk measurements to determine which investment holds the most risk. Since Magellan High Conviction first started, the Sharpe ratio is NA with an annualised volatility of 12.34%. The maximum drawdown of the investment product in the last 12 months is -3.6% and -27.99% since inception. The maximum drawdown is defined as the high-to-low decline of an investment during a particular time period.
Relative performance is what an asset achieves over a period of time compared to similar investments or its peers. Relative return is a measure of the asset's performance compared to the return to the other investment. The Magellan High Conviction has a 12-month excess return when compared to the Foreign Equity - Large Specialised Index of 2.15% and -0.16% since inception.
Alpha is an investing term used to measure an investment's outperformance relative to a market benchmark or peer investment. Alpha describes the excess return generated when compared to peer investment. Magellan High Conviction has produced Alpha over the Foreign Equity - Large Specialised Index of NA% in the last 12 months and NA% since inception.
For a full list of investment products in the Foreign Equity - Large Specialised Index category, you can click here for the Peer Investment Report.
Magellan High Conviction has a correlation coefficient of 0.9 and a beta of 1.03 when compared to the Foreign Equity - Large Specialised Index. Correlation measures how similarly two investments move in relation to one another. This establishes a 'correlation coefficient', which has a value between -1.0 and +1.0. A 100% correlation between two investments means that the correlation coefficient is +1. Beta in investments measures how much the price moves relative to the broader market over a period of time. If the investment moves more than the broader market, it has a beta above 1.0. If it moves less than the broader market, then the beta is less than 1.0. Investments with a high beta tend to carry more risk but have the potential to deliver higher returns.
For a full quantitative report on Magellan High Conviction and its peer investments, you can click here for the Peer Investment Report.
For a full quantitative report on Magellan High Conviction compared to the Developed -World Index, you can click here.
To sort and compare the Magellan High Conviction financial metrics, please refer to the table above.
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A concentrated portfolio of 10-20 high quality companies meaningfully diversified in risk exposure and correlations seeking to achieve strong risk-adjusted, not benchmark-relative returns.
Cash and cash equivalents exposure between 0 – 50%. The Fund may, from time to time, hedge some or all of the capital component of the foreign currency exposure of the Fund arising from investments in overseas markets back to Australian Dollars.
A concentrated portfolio of 10-20 high quality companies meaningfully diversified in risk exposure and correlations seeking to achieve strong risk-adjusted, not benchmark-relative returns.
Typical cash and cash equivalents exposure between 0 – 50%.
The portfolio rose over 10% during the March quarter with our holdings in Booking, Microsoft, Alphabet, Chipotle and Amazon leading the way higher. Each of these rose by over 20% in the quarter except Alphabet, which rose by 15%. The significant events of the start of 2023, particularly the banking crisis, has accelerated the pricing of peak rates and recession fears. The portfolio held no exposure to banks and benefited from this.
The lessening of risk to higher long-term bonds and concerns of greater economic slowdown have seen the backdrop move strongly in favour of the characteristics we seek for the High Conviction strategy.
In addition, the long-term total addressable market opportunity that we believe is evident for many of our holdings came back into focus as OpenAI launched ChatGPT to the public, acquiring 100m users in just eight days. Artificial intelligence is not a new phenomenon with about 20 large foundational models in existence, including Microsoft, DeepMind, Meta, Nvidia, and the Allen Institute. OpenAI’s ChatGPT brought a user interface that did several things; it presented a conversational logic that follows on and has contextual linking; it did not dump blocks of text answers but instead typed out answers word by word, giving the appearance of a person responding; and it was made open to the public.
Microsoft, already an investor in OpenAI, moved swiftly to invest a further $10B and lock up future ownership optionality. It has since added CoPilot to several products and rolled out the new Bing. The opportunity for commercial gains across its business from AI have become increasingly evident to investors.
Initially Alphabet struggled as investors worried Microsoft had ‘stolen a march’ on it and Bing would take search share from Google (and Alphabet bungled the initial showcase of its AI). We believe Alphabet has a strong position in advertising and Cloud that it can commercialise successfully, and this is not a two-horse race to be won by one. Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon are also all facing near-term headwinds as Cloud spend is optimised by their clients and this has forced a meaningful reduction of headcount and other costs to be undertaken. We expect the very near-term quarterly results will remain soft as they each work through the rectification of overbuilt cost structures and instil greater discipline, but we consider this will ensure
The Magellan High Conviction strategy rose slightly for the quarter. The biggest positive contributions came from the investments in Visa, Intercontinental Exchange and Yum! Brands. All three have shown persistent resilience through recent months and Visa and Yum! both benefit from the current high inflation environment. ICE is delivering strong results and benefiting from current market conditions while the prospective merger with Black Knight awaits regulatory approval. Booking Holdings and Safran also contributed strongly as the improving global travel trends continued.
The biggest detractor in local-currency terms in the quarter was the 25.9% fall in Amazon, as it has found itself on the wrong side of excess demand driven by pandemic stimulus and ultra-low interest rates that is now unwinding. This has seen sizeable cuts to expectations for both its retail and AWS businesses and implementation of major cost cutting and capex reductions to right size its operations. We believe Amazon will ultimately come out of this cycle stronger and better focused and will remain a leading player in its core exposures across cloud infrastructure, ecommerce and, increasingly, advertising. The other main detractors were Alphabet and Meta Platforms, for similar reasons to Amazon; overspend on costs and capex into material revenue slowdowns from stimulus-fueled strength. We exited Meta Platforms during the quarter as part of a general reposition to reduce correlated technology sector exposure and diversify our end market exposures.
The portfolio recorded a negative return for the quarter. The biggest detractors in local-currency terms were the strategy’s holdings in Microsoft, Alphabet and Visa. The trio slid mainly because they are proxies for economic activity: Microsoft for business IT investment; Alphabet, the owner of Google, for advertising; and Visa for consumer spending. A further blow for Microsoft was that its US$69 billion purchase of computer games developer Activision Blizzard faces a probe by the UK regulators over whether or not it could hamper competition.
The biggest contributors included the investments in Netflix and Amazon.com. Netflix gained after the streaming TV leader reported it lost a fewer-than-expected 970,000 subscribers in the second quarter and the company announced it will partner with Microsoft on its new ad-supported tier. Amazon rose after reporting second-quarter revenue that beat estimates and predicted sales could rise 17% in the current quarter thanks to third-party selling and sustained growth in its AWS cloud division.
Index movements are in local currency. US GDP statistics come from the US Department of Commerce, while US employment and inflation statistics are published by the US Department of Labor. EU economic statistics come from Eurostat. UK statistics are released by the Office for National Statistics. Japanese economic statistics come from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (GDP). Australian economic statistics are released by the Australia Bureau of Statistics. China’s economic statistics are compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
The portfolio recorded a negative return for the quarter. Among the biggest detractors as a rise in government bond yields applied a greater discount to future profits were the investments in Netflix, Amazon and Alphabet. Netflix dived after the streaming service reported an unexpected decline in subscribers during the first quarter, when 200,000 people cancelled their subscriptions. Amazon declined after the online retailer posted its first quarterly loss since 2015 due to rising costs and a write-down on its investment in electric carmaker, Rivian. Alphabet, the parent of Google, dropped after firstquarter revenue growth of 20% disappointed due to poorerthan-expected ad sales in Europe and on YouTube.
No stocks contributed over the quarter.
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