BT Index Growth Fund seeks to deliver predominantly moderate to high growth and some income returns, which tracks the overall return of a diversified portfolio of underlying investments. The Fund invests in a diverse mix of assets with an emphasis (about 85%) on the growth oriented assets of Australian and international shares, and investment (about 15%) in the defensive assets of cash and fixed interest providing some income and stability of returns. The Fund’s exposure to these asset classes will be obtained by investing directly into sector specific funds.
After January’s strong start to 2023, February shifted into reverse gear with a softer performance across global markets. Central banks continued hiking interest rates despite global inflation prints beginning to show signs of abating. Softening in what has been exceedingly strong labour markets, as rate hikes weigh on confidence and household spending, is a clear indicator. That said, we are not out of the woods yet, as we believe there remains a long path to controlling inflation. As mentioned above, the RBA kicked off 2023 with another rate hike of 25bps, taking the cash rate to 3.35%. The policy statement took a more hawkish tone than December’s, with stronger language around its resolve to bring inflation back to target. The final paragraph of the statement: ‘The Board expects that further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead to ensure that inflation returns to target and that this period of high inflation is only temporary’. This statement implies that there are going to be at least two more hikes in this cycle. The Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) includes updated forecasts for the economy, in which the outlook for economic activity remains broadly unchanged. The RBA is still expecting a soft landing, with the unemployment rate to increase but remain well below where it sat pre-pandemic. What changed was the outlook for underlying inflation (the inflation measure which dampens the impact of volatile items) and wages growth.
The RBA is now expecting annual wages growth to be around 0.5% higher in the December quarter of 2022 and the June quarter of 2023. This is feeding into higher underlying inflation expectations, which is now approximately 0.75% higher for the June quarter 2023. By 2025, underlying inflation and wages growth are broadly in line with what was expected in November. These forecasts are based on the cash rate reaching 3.75% in mid-2023, up from the 3.5% expected back in November. In other words, the RBA believes the economy can withstand a cash rate of 3.75% without slowing down too sharply
What is BT Index Growth Fund BT Index Growth Fund is an Managed Funds investment product that is benchmarked against Multi-Asset Aggressive Investor Index and sits inside the Multi-Asset - 81-100% Low-Cost Index. Think of a benchmark as a standard where investment performance can be measured. Typically, market indices like the ASX200 and market-segment stock indexes are used for this purpose. The BT Index Growth Fund has Assets Under Management of 310.72 M with a management fee of 0.33%, a performance fee of 0.00% and a buy/sell spread fee of 0.17%.
How has the investment product performed recently?
The recent investment performance of the investment product shows that the BT Index Growth Fund has returned 1.96% in the last month. The previous three years have returned 6.98% annualised and 11.02% each year since inception, which is when the BT Index Growth Fund first started.
How is risk measured in this investment product?
There are many ways that the risk of an investment product can be measured, and each measurement provides a different insight into the risk present. They can be used on their own or together to perform a risk assessment before investing, but when comparing investments, it is common to compare like for like risk measurements to determine which investment holds the most risk. Since BT Index Growth Fund first started, the Sharpe ratio is NA with an annualised volatility of 11.02%. The maximum drawdown of the investment product in the last 12 months is -3.33% and -20.2% since inception. The maximum drawdown is defined as the high-to-low decline of an investment during a particular time period.
What is the relative performance of the investment product?
Relative performance is what an asset achieves over a period of time compared to similar investments or its peers. Relative return is a measure of the asset's performance compared to the return to the other investment. The BT Index Growth Fund has a 12-month excess return when compared to the Multi-Asset - 81-100% Low-Cost Index of 0.41% and -0.51% since inception.
Does the investment product produce Alpha over its Peers?
Alpha is an investing term used to measure an investment's outperformance relative to a market benchmark or peer investment. Alpha describes the excess return generated when compared to peer investment. BT Index Growth Fund has produced Alpha over the Multi-Asset - 81-100% Low-Cost Index of NA% in the last 12 months and NA% since inception.
What are similar investment products?
For a full list of investment products in the Multi-Asset - 81-100% Low-Cost Index category, you can click here for the Peer Investment Report.
What level of diversification will BT Index Growth Fund provide?
BT Index Growth Fund has a correlation coefficient of 0.99 and a beta of 1.1 when compared to the Multi-Asset - 81-100% Low-Cost Index. Correlation measures how similarly two investments move in relation to one another. This establishes a 'correlation coefficient', which has a value between -1.0 and +1.0. A 100% correlation between two investments means that the correlation coefficient is +1. Beta in investments measures how much the price moves relative to the broader market over a period of time. If the investment moves more than the broader market, it has a beta above 1.0. If it moves less than the broader market, then the beta is less than 1.0. Investments with a high beta tend to carry more risk but have the potential to deliver higher returns.
How do I compare the investment product with its peers?
For a full quantitative report on BT Index Growth Fund and its peer investments, you can click here for the Peer Investment Report.
How do I compare the BT Index Growth Fund with the Multi-Asset Aggressive Investor Index?
For a full quantitative report on BT Index Growth Fund compared to the Multi-Asset Aggressive Investor Index, you can click here.
Can I sort and compare the BT Index Growth Fund to do my own analysis?
To sort and compare the BT Index Growth Fund financial metrics, please refer to the table above.
Has the BT Index Growth Fund been independently verified by SMSF Mate?
This investment product is in the process of being independently verified by SMSF Mate. Once we have verified the investment product, you will be able to find more information here.
How can I invest in BT Index Growth Fund?
If you or your self managed super fund would like to invest in the BT Index Growth Fund please contact 275 Kent Street Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia via phone 61-2-9259-3555 or via email -.
How do I get in contact with the BT Index Growth Fund?
If you would like to get in contact with the BT Index Growth Fund manager, please call 61-2-9259-3555.
Comments from SMSF Mates
SMSF Mate does not receive commissions or kickbacks from the BT Index Growth Fund. All data and commentary for this fund is provided free of charge for our readers general information.
Performance Commentary - January 31, 2023 Consumer sentiment started 2023 on a positive note, rising to 84.3 in January, an increase of 5.0% in the month. Sentiment is at its highest level since September, though still deeply pessimistic as the mood among consumers is downbeat among higher interest rates and elevated cost-ofliving pressures. Encouragingly, consumers are slowly becoming less pessimistic about the future.
The weak consumer sentiment is expected to flow through to a slowdown in household spending. However, this is taking time as spending has been supported by robust household savings, an unleashing of pent-up demand, and a tight labour market. These factors are expected to fade as we move through 2023. The December quarter’s headline inflation read came in at 1.9%, to be 7.8% in annual terms. This annual rate is the highest in nearly 33 years, though was under the RBA’s forecast of 8%. Goods inflation is showing some signs of easing, though this may be happening too slowly for the RBA’s liking. More troubling for the RBA is that price pressures have broadened and inflation in the services industry has accelerated to 5.5% p.a. – its highest rate since 2008. This was driven by the hospitality industry with consumers seemingly blasé by the 10.9% quarterly increase in the price of holiday travel and accommodation.
Performance Commentary - December 31, 2022 2022 was a year unlike any other. It was initially predicted to be one of repair and recovery following the global pandemic, though it was found to be rather rife with political uncertainty, market volatility, interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and of course, resultant high inflation. As we move into 2023, indicators are that inflation may have peaked, with language from central banks now debating whether they will pivot or pause their rate hike strategies.
Australia
There is growing evidence the economy is starting to slow as the weight of this year’s rate hikes take a toll. Data released in December indicated retail spending fell in October for the first time this year as consumers remain deeply pessimistic about the economic outlook. Moreover, November’s inflation numbers unexpectedly showed an easing in price pressures. This data may be an early sign that inflation has started to roll over and that it will peak in the current quarter, as expected by policymakers. However, one month’s number is not enough to constitute a trend. Also, the monthly inflation measure is not as important as the quarterly inflation measure that the RBA focusses on, although it has been providing reliable guidance. Encouragingly, China has also further relaxed COVID-19 restrictions, supporting a further improvement in globalsupply chain disruptions. Furthermore, the unemployment rate fell to its lowest in nearly 50 years and the wage price index reveals an acceleration is underway in wages growth.
Performance Commentary - November 30, 2022 Share markets continued their upward momentum over the month as investors weighed in on the debate over ‘are we at peak rates and peak inflation yet?’. With support from strong employment data and a softening view on a global recession coming sooner than later, headwinds of house price falls, consumer sentiment waning, a cautious business community, and ongoing geopolitical forces centring around Europe and Asia, all seemed to take a back seat to investor concerns. As we look ahead to December, all eyes will be on the sustainability of this back-to-back monthly rally. Markets will be directing attention to data released for US payrolls, job openings, consumer spending, and the upcoming Fed meeting mid-month. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply to 78.0 in November from 83.7 in October. The read is now below the 79.0 recorded during the GFC and near the lows recorded during the deep recession of the early 1990s (64.6) and the initial phase of COVID (76.5). Interestingly, the divergence between consumer confidence and consumer spending is still quite wide.
While consumer sentiment has been deeply pessimistic for most of this year, retail spending has remained resilient, although is now showing subtle signs of slowing. The source of this resilience could include the strength of the labour market, savings accumulated during the pandemic, or a larger proportion of households with fixed-rate mortgages – who haven’t yet felt the pinch of higher rates. Either way, it ironically appears that consumers are socialising in busy retail and hospitality venues talking about how bad the economy is.
Performance Commentary - October 31, 2022 Markets rallied over October against a strong headwind of a tighter US rate rise trajectory, mixed economic data across the globe, a new UK prime minister and still no let-up of the Chinese leadership’s zero-COVID policy. Concerns remain over energy supply as Europe moves towards the winter months and whilst on the topic of Europe, the impacts of their central banks’ October rate rise to combat record levels of inflation being reported in that region. As we look ahead, global recession remains a front-of-mind topic of discussion.
Australia
Producer price inflation continued to increase through the September quarter. The Producer Prices Index (PPI), which measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, accelerated 1.9% over the quarter. This brought the index’s rise to 5.6% over the year to September. This suggests that inflationary pressures are still building in the pipeline. Headline inflation continued to accelerate rapidly in the September quarter, surging to 7.3% – the highest annual pace in over 32 years.
While global supply-chain disruptions and energy price shocks are major drivers of inflation, pressures continue to spread across a range of spending categories. Strong domestic demand is marking up against constrained supply, leading to further increases in prices. Of all the spending categories and sub-categories measured by the Bureau of Statistics, over 85% grew at an annual pace of more than 2.5% (the mid-point of the RBA’s 2-3% target band). The last time more than 85% of categories and sub-categories grew at an annual pace of over 2.5% was in 1990.
Performance Commentary - September 30, 2022 Markets continued to fall over September as rate rises were delivered over the month. The expectations of rate hikes in the near future also sparked the acceptance that a global recession has a high probability of occurring, as the fight to temper inflation continues. With the UK in a state of economic flux, and no end in sight with the war in the Ukraine, there remains a deep uncertainty as to what lies ahead.
Australia
In early September the Federal Government’s Jobs and Skills Summit took place, which included two days of speeches and discussions with industry, government, unions, and business leaders.
The Government announced 36 outcomes and initiatives that would be implemented following the Summit. These are grouped into five key themes and categories:
– A better skilled, better trained workforce. – Addressing skills shortages and strengthening the migration system.
– Boosting job security and wages, and creating safe, fair and productive workplaces.
– Promoting equal opportunities and reducing barries to employment.
– Maximising jobs and opportunities in our industries and communities.
Performance Commentary - August 31, 2022 The bullish sentiment in July that saw a strong market recovery was tempered over August as a more hawkish tone from Central Banks pushed most markets into negative territory. While the argument over whether we have hit ‘peak inflation’ continues, we saw US inflation moderate, however the Eurozone’s continues to rise. Political uncertainty continued in the UK, where looking ahead, a fourth Prime Minister in six years was elected. This is in the face of an economy that has now slipped behind India in the World Bank’s latest global GDP rankings.
Over August, wage pressures across the economy have been growing steadily. Survey measures suggest that total labour costs (including employment growth) are increasing at the fastest rate on record. Reports of oversized wage increases are common, particularly in industries with strong labour demand and labour supply issues. This includes IT, professional services, construction, and parts of the services sector that previously had a heavy reliance on international students and migrants. These wage pressures are expected to flow through into the Wage Price Index (WPI) over time. Growth in the WPI had only returned to around pre-pandemic levels in the March quarter. For the June quarter, we predict that wages grew by 0.9%, to be 2.9% higher over the year. If our forecasts prove to be correct, this will result in the strongest quarterly wages growth since mid-2012 and the strongest annual growth since mid-2013.
Performance Commentary - June 30, 2022 In June we saw the release of NAB’s Business Confidence and Conditions surveys that saw a decline in business confidence of 4 index points to +6 in May. A range of factors are weighing on confidence among businesses, including elevated inflationary pressures, labour shortages, and supply-chain disruptions. The fall in consumer sentiment and increases in interest rates from the RBA are also likely weighing on business confidence. The prospect of continued pressure on global supply chains as China implements its zero-COVID policy, and the risk of a slowdown in global economic growth alongside central bank policy tightening, may impact confidence in the months ahead. Business conditions fell to +16 from a revised +19 in April. However, conditions remain elevated and well above the long-run average of +7.
The decline reflected a fall in the profitability and trading sub-indices. However, while both sub-indices pulled back from recent ten-month highs, they remain elevated and were at their second highest level in 11 months. Profitability and trading conditions had been improving over much of 2022 as restrictions across the country lifted and consumers adapted to living with COVID.
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