Antares Prof High Growth Shares (PPL0106AU) Report & Performance

Australian shares made strong gains on lower inflation and hopes that China will pursue more stimulatory policy settings. The energy sector led the market gains as oil prices surged. Financial shares also rebounded with optimism that the Reserve Bank interest rate hiking cycle was coming to an end. Information Technology continued to perform well, fuelled by the mania for AI related shares.

Resources shares gained on China stimulus hopes. But there was some weakness in the Consumer Staples and Health Care sectors given concerns that the Australian consumer is struggling.

The Antares High Growth Shares Fund delivered a return of 2.9% (net of fees) for the month of July 2023, in line with its benchmark.

Contributing to performance were overweight positions in Block Inc (SQ2), Seek (SEK) and AGL. Despite limited stock specific news, SQ2 shares rallied 21.4% as part of the risk-on trade and more positive sentiment on the resilience of the US consumer. SEK benefited from a shift in thinking about the macroeconomic environment. The market has previously been concerned about SEK’s volumes if the unemployment rate were to increase. AGL has enjoyed recent broker upgrades following the strong recovery in wholesale electricity prices.

Detracting value were overweight positions in IGO Limited (IGO) and CSL together with a short position in Woodside Energy (WDS). IGO provided a strong Q4 production and sales update. However, the company also gave FY24 production and capex guidance, of which the latter disappointed the market as it was significantly ahead of expectations. The 14.2% rise in the Brent Crude USD price during July was reflected in a buoyant performance by WDS shares. CSL’s share price has continued to languish since issuing disappointing FY24 guidance in June following news that margin recovery in its Behring plasma collection division would take longer than the market expected.

Australia’s economy is giving mixed signals with robust jobs growth and moderating inflation being countered by weak retail spending. There were strong employment gains in June as the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5% – essentially a 50-year low. Consumer price pressures also moderated in the June quarter with annual inflation coming in at 6.0%. However, the looming price rises for electricity and residential rents in the new financial year still suggest that inflation is a concern. For consumers, the squeeze on budgets from high inflation and rising interest rates has negatively impacted spending as evidenced by the sharp fall in June retail sales. While the Reserve Bank held the cash interest rate steady at 4.1% in July, it guided that further interest rate rises may be required to reduce inflation.

Australian shares made mild gains in June given signs that inflation pressures were abating and hopes that China will pursue more stimulatory policy settings.

The Resources sector surged on China growth hopes with strong gains in iron ore prices. The Information Technology sector also made strong gains on the back of investors’ enthusiasm for anything remotely connected with AI. Financials rebounded, reversing May’s weakness with signs of resilience in the Australian economy mitigating credit risks. Healthcare was weak as investors became more cautious about the sector’s prospects.

The Antares High Growth Shares Fund delivered a return of 1.4% (net of fees) for the month of June 2023, compared to its benchmark’s 1.8% return.

Contributing to performance were overweight positions in Paladin Energy (PDN), AGL and Botanix (BOT). PDN performed well as its share price rebounded after being sold-down in late May driven by fears of partial government intervention in its key Namibian asset, Langer Heindrich. It also benefitted from more positive sentiment towards nuclear energy as a genuine option in the global quest to drive down emissions from energy production. AGL increased its earnings guidance for FY23 and provided guidance for FY24 that was well in excess of market estimates. BOT announced an agreement to commercialise its topical ECCLOCK treatment for severe underarm sweating in Korea and added that it was expecting FDA approval for the drug in September. The company also hosted an investor presentation during the month in the wake of increased investor interest.

Detracting value were overweight positions in CSL and TPG Telecom (TPG) and a short position in Fortescue Metals (FMG). CSL provided a trading update indicating currency headwinds would impact its FY23 result. More significantly it noted margin recovery in its Behring plasma collection division would take longer than the market expected, as both donor fees and labour cost inflation remain higher than anticipated. This meant that CSL’s FY24 guidance was below consensus and the stock was sold down. TPG Telecom (TPG) detracted from performance after the Australian Competition Tribunal rejected its proposed deal

with Telstra. In the deal, TPG would have gained access to Telstra’s leading mobile network in regional Australia, thus boosting the range and service coverage of TPG brands such as Vodaphone. Optimism that further stimulus would drive Chinese growth saw the iron ore price spike and so too FMG’s share price.

Australia’s economy has displayed more positive signs with strong jobs growth, a rebound in retail spending and inflation moderating. May saw Australia’s employment expand by a robust +75,900 jobs and the unemployment rate edge down from 3.7% to 3.6%. Consumers were also more willing to raise their retail spending in May but this also reflected promotional activity and sales events according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Consumer price pressures moderated in May with annual inflation coming in at 5.6% compared to 6.8% for April. However, the looming strong rises in electricity costs and residential rents in the new financial year suggest a painful squeeze on consumer budgets. The Reserve Bank again surprised with another 0.25% interest rate hike in June taking the cash interest rate to 4.1% in the hope of returning inflation back to its 2% to 3% target range.

Australian shares fell in May as lower commodity prices, higher interest rates and weak consumer spending cautioned investors. The sharpest falls were in the consumer discretionary and staples sectors given signs of a retail recession for consumer spending. The combination of higher mortgage interest rates, rising rents and stubborn inflation pressures is squeezing purchasing power.

There was also notable weakness in the resource sector given lower coal and iron ore prices on China concerns. Financials also disappointed given the prospect of lower profit margins with higher deposit interest rates and more sedate credit demand. Echoing the US market and the surge of investment interest in anything remotely related to artificial intelligence (AI), the Australian Information Technology sector posted a double-digit gain for May. The Antares High Growth Shares Fund delivered a return of -1.2% (net of fees) for the month of May 2023, compared to its benchmark’s -2.5% return. Sector allocation Contributing to performance were overweight positions in Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) and Santos (STO) together with an underweight holding in NAB. TLX held its AGM in May at which the company noted its plans to build on the success of Illuccix, which is used in the detection of prostate cancer and also on the results from its Phase III ZIRCON study of TLX250-CDx in clear cell renal cell carcinoma. Management reiterated their strategy and confirmed $100m in R&D investment for 2023. The onset of cold weather and strong spot gas prices has boosted sentiment for gas producers. Several of STO’s plants that experienced outages early this year, including Moomba and Varanus island, have recovered, removing concerns about production. Supply disruptions for competitor Beach Energy may have been another positive for STO sentiment. NAB shares were under pressure after the bank released its first half results for 2023. Despite some positives, including a lift in dividend, the market reacted to comments from the bank on the impact of lower house prices and volume growth amid increased competition. This was reflected in a $393m credit impairment charge.

Australian Shares made solid gains in April given the global share rebound and signals from the Reserve Bank for a pause in raising interest rates. The strongest gains were from the AREITs which benefitted from the lower rates and the Information Technology sector which followed its global peers higher. The Resources sector was dragged down by the Materials stocks as iron ore prices corrected on weak steel demand, but this was partly mitigated by gains in Energy and Gold stocks.

The Antares High Growth Shares Fund delivered a return of 2.2% (net of fees) for the month of April 2023, ahead of its benchmark’s 1.8% increase. Contributing to performance was an overweight position in Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) and short positions in Rio Tinto (RIO) and Fortescue Metals (FMG). Shares in TLX enjoyed a stellar month after reporting revenue of A$100m for the first quarter of 2023. Consensus broker estimates of revenue for the full calendar year Sector allocation 2023 were A$360m and following the disclosure of first quarter numbers that consensus forecast was increased to A$470m, an upgrade of 30% which in turn drove the stock price up 35%. Despite some positive economic signals from China, steel demand was weak which saw iron ore and metals prices drop in April – as did both RIO and FMG shares.

Australian shares slipped into negative territory in March. The sharpest falls were in the real estate and financial sectors given the turmoil in the global banking system and lower bond yields. However, strength in the resource sector on hopes of a Chinese economic recovery helped limit the downside in Australian share markets. There were also gains for communications, consumer discretionary and consumer staples sectors on hopes that the Reserve Bank would pause on further interest rate increases.

The Antares High Growth Shares Fund delivered a return of 0.8% (net of fees) for the month of March 2023.

Contributing to outperformance was an overweight position in Northern Star (NST) together with decisions not to own NAB and Macquarie Group (MQG). NST shares rallied during the month as the US banking crisis saw gold prices increase by 8%. The company provided an update on its Pogo Operation in Alaska where gold production was halted in order to repair damage to the ball mill motor that was discovered during routine repairs. While the disruption is expected to impact production by 20-40k oz in FY23, the company’s production guidance remains unchanged. The global banking turmoil impacted the sector in Australia and NAB and MQG shares were not exempt.

Detracting value were overweight positions in GPT, Goodman Group (GMG) and APM Human Services (APM). There was no company news from GPT or GMG during the month, although sentiment around the real estate sector was generally negative. Despite announcing several new north American contracts during the month, APM shares have continued to languish.

Australia’s economy still appears to be softening judging by more sedate retail spending. Consumers have become more cautious given high inflation and rising mortgage interest rates. There was only a mild rise in nominal retail spending in February, with the annual gain at 6.4% now failing to keep up with inflation. There were some encouraging signs of labour market resilience with stronger job gains in February and the unemployment rate edged down from 3.7% to 3.5%. Also positive was that consumer inflation appears to have peaked, with the new ABS monthly CPI measure showing annual inflation falling from 7.4% in January to 6.8% in February.

Australian shares slipped into negative territory in February. The sharpest falls were in the resource sector with some disappointments over the profit reports of BHP and Rio. Financial shares also fell with the banks being squeezed by lower net interest margins and concerns over falling house prices. Real estate sector shares were also negatively impacted by rising bond yields. There were some positives with Insurers performing well on positive news from Medibank Private together with a general sector lift as higher bond yields drive high investment income given asset class restrictions for insurers. Utilities also delivered solid gains on a higher than expected (albeit lower) revised bid for Origin from Brookfield. Information technology recovered some ground after the sector was savaged in 2022.

The Antares High Growth Shares Fund delivered a return of -3.0% (net of fees) for the month of February 2023. Sector allocation Contributing to performance were overweight positions in Medibank Private (MPL), Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) and not holding a position in NAB. We have maintained our view that the market over-reacted to the potential impact on MPL’s customer retention after its cyber security incident. This was partially vindicated in its half year result as policy numbers stabilised and began to grow again in February, whilst claims inflation was lower than expected. These factors helped support the stock.

ALL held its AGM during the month and reiterated its guidance for 2023 on a reasonably positive outlook. The stock regained much of the ground lost in January. Banks have generally underperformed on concerns about net interest margins peaking amid fierce competition for home mortgages and the prospect of higher bad debts as interest rates increase. Detracting value were overweight positions in Northern Star (NST), Paladin (PDN) and IGO. NST’s results for the six months to 31 December 2022 were generally in line with expectations. But, the decline in the share price was driven by the strength of the US dollar, as US interest rate expectations again began to rise and the subsequent fall in the gold price. A reduction in risk appetite likely contributed to weakness in the PDN share price.

IGO shares reflected the general weakness in resource stocks and the divergence of views on lithium prices. Top 10 share holdings (alphabetical order) Australia’s economy appears to be softening judging by more subdued retail spending and falling house prices. Consumers have become more cautious with high inflation and rising mortgage interest rates. Even the labour market is cooling after the strong jobs growth in 2022 with the unemployment rate edging up from 3.5% to 3.7% in January